Smell of change

In memory of my Loving Grandfather (10 July 1936 - 27 October 2015)

We are living in post industrial era where everything is continuously changing and evolving drastically and an exponential rise in every field can be felt across the globe. Center of gravity of businesses and governments is changing as per technological evolvement. The resource intensive patterns which were prevailed since the end of World War II can be seen replaced by a new trend of economic growth, data patterns and knowledge intensive growth. This can be seen as the latest phase of capitalism which is revolving around data, information, knowledge, technological evolvement, skills, ideas, services, intangibles, human assets, brainpower, education and intellectual property etc.  Where we are heading?

Revolution can be felt across new generation businesses which are showing how combination of ideas and technology are changing the gravity. We can take examples of Alibaba (Retail without inventory), Airbnb (Accommodation without hotels), Uber (Transportation without cars) and may more. We can have few examples of entirely new businesses which started from an idea and has valued more than a billion dollar businesses within some years like Xiomi, Snapchat, Dropbox, DociSign, Palantir, Pinterest and Jawbone etc. There is a clear cut competition in which the new winners are winning the bigger pie and rest are struggling hard for the left part. The intellectual property is creating the value of corporations rather than the operational part.

Data, Analytics and technology are uniting and are responsible for current developments and upcoming future trends. Data when combined with technology becomes key driver of global development and lifestyle enhancement. A new game changer “Real Time data” is coming in lime light which has the ability to influence buying behaviour and helping businesses in growing by customising their campaigns. According to a survey done by Talend, Almost 85% of online shoppers have abandoned a shopping cart prior to checkout and if retailers employ real-time big data technologies, they can recover 30 percent or more of that potential revenue.

Internet is playing a key role in today’s lifestyle and has become an essential part of everything. It is the fastest link of data sharing around the globe and also it is becoming the playground of cyber terrorism and data hacking attacks. If we talk about data concerns, then we can take example of US whistleblower Edward Snowden who leaked documents in 2013 revealing global surveillance programmes carried out by Washington which created chaos in global communities. Due to this, companies like Microsoft are opening data centers in Germany, Canada and India.  Not only businesses but governments are also concerned with security of their top secret data from cyber attacks and also concerned with the usage of freely available data for solving their other issues as well. Recently Facebook (which has bigger population from China) recorded that the number of requests for Facebook data made by governments around the word roses for 18 percent in last half year in which US made most requests, asking 17577 times for 26579 accounts.

Social media is spreading information faster than every possible means. Facebook and Twitter etc have changed the way of interaction and communication among the masses. In previous years we have seen many government change and removal of dictators who were ruling countries since many decades and this became possible when people united on a common platform with a common intention and this shows the potential power of social media. This platform is rigorously used by teenagers for sharing and marketers for promotion and also eventually it is being used by terrorists groups for recruitment of terrorists and creating chaos among people. People are divided in two major parts, one is creating a reign of terrorism and others are fighting and protesting terrorism on this platform. After recent attack of ISIS on Paris, many countries started tracing tweets send by people of ISIS or tweets in favor of ISIS. 

The importance of internet can be felt by a report which says that Russian submarines and spy ships are operating aggressively near vital undersea cables that carry almost all global Internet communications, raising concerns among some United States military and intelligence officials that Russia might be planning to attack those lines in times of tension or conflict.

Internet and data is proving to be the backbone of businesses and governments and this is the one of key driving factor of economies is becoming vulnerable towards attacks and data losses. At one side we are getting benefited and are expecting good and positive changes in world economies and lifestyle but on other side it is getting highly misused in spreading terror and if internet cables gets damaged or destroyed in future by what so ever means and data traffic stopped, then it will be not easy to estimate how much loss it will made in global economy and lifestyle. We are now becoming dependent on internet and we cannot live without this. Are we really moving in right direction? Or we have to find out alternative solution of internet? 

Rise of Open Source

In this digital age, technology is proving to be the backbone of the economies and a new revolution can be felt across the globe. New businesses are spinning across the key technologies and the new waves of rising companies are the product of freely available technologies which is also known as open source. Now the questions arise: What is the contribution of open source in businesses and economies? Whether open source technologies are viable enough to be considered as backbone of new unicorns? Can businesses rely on open source technology?

Open source technology is currently supporting technology giants like Google and Facebook and around 70% of new apps. Organizations are increasingly adopting the open source technologies and are taking participation in open source community. According to a survey Ninth Annual future of open source, 78% of organizations are using open source software either fully or partially compared to 42% in 2010 which is nearly doubled in five years. Also around 64% of companies are participating in open source projects compared to 50% last year and it is expected that this number can reach 88% in next 2-3 years. Cloud computing (39%), big data (35%), operating systems (33%), and the Internet of Things (31%) are expected to be impacted most by open source in the next 2-3 years. Red Hat, Ubuntu and Acquia can be traced in the DNA of new start-ups. Even open source databases gained popularity over the period of time. According to a ranking site DB-Engines, out of top 10 databases 6 are open source and top eight relational technologies are all open source. This trend shows how open source is gaining its pace and its universe is expanding sharply.

Linux has contributed heavily in transition phase of information technology that has taken us in the new era which is driven by Big Data, Analytics and Cloud. It has created a strong open ecosystem which has been responsible for the innovation taken place over the period of time which resulted in the expansion of market of Linux, which has surpassed $57 billion in 2014 which is almost doubled in five years.

The quality and reliability of open source software are constantly improving as the developers are continuously working in fixing the defects founded in open source software codes. The Coverity Scan service is helping the developers in finding out bugs in open source codes which is greatly helpful in correcting those bugs and making those codes more reliable and secured to be used by anyone on this planet. Since 2006, the Coverity Scan service has helped developers finding and fixing more than 240,000 defects. In 2014 alone, developers fixed nearly 152,000 defects—more than the total number of defects found from 2006-2013.  Defect density (defects per 1,000 lines of code) of open source code and commercial code has continued to improve since 2013. Open source code defect density improved from 0.66 in 2013 to 0.61 in 2014, while commercial code defect density improved from 0.77 to 0.76.

If we talk about developing markets like African and Asian countries, licensing fees are still a major challenge and open source is the key solution for this problem. Some companies are also coming forward in open sourcing their important codes. Safaricom which is an M-Pesa’s founding organisation announced that it will open its API (application programming interfaces)to developers in 2015. Similarly Orange in West Africa has opened up its API and recently Intel has released the speech system which has made for Stephen Hawkins as open source. Even NASA in collaboration with Rackspace has created an open source cloud computing platform OpenStack. The well known example of open source API is Android which already have thousands of apps and due to which Android have five billion API calls per day where one app asks another to do something. 

Open Source system is playing a major role in creating new winners in technology based business community. We can see a radical shift in technology business model as previous giants like Blackberry and Nokia can be seen left behind in technology innovation and upgradation race while other businesses especially start-ups which are gradually aligning with cloud and open source technologies are proving to be the new winners. In coming time Billions of people will be connected by internet permanently and internet of things (IOT) will be responsible for make people smarter, open source software will help this trend to flourish and will allow anyone on this planet to create devices and applications for the interconnected world. 

Fintech – Time to change traditional finance industry

Fintech is the new Buzz word in the market which has shifted Finance industry on the verge of disruption. The Fintech start-ups are ahead of traditional banks and finance institutions in digital technology and developing banking products which are of low cost and more user friendly. The emerging trend of mobile banking, data, increasing information, analytics and decentralization of access is creating the room for growth of Fintech. Now the questions arises are whether the traditional finance and banking industry is losing its market on exponential basis and why? And whether the traditional finance industry is on death bed? Does this traditional finance industry have any chance to fight back the new emerging tough competition?

According to a report by Accenture, Global investments in Fintech ventures tripled to US$12.21 billion in 2014 which was only US$4.05 billion in 2013. Investments in Fintech has grown to 201% in 2014 globally compare to 63% growth in overall venture capital investments. Fintech investments in the US soared to US$9.89 billion in 2014, up 191% from US$3.39 billion in 2013In this investment of US$12.21, US enjoyed the biggest share but Europe had the highest growth of 215% YOY. With the five biggest banks controlling nearly US$15 trillion in assets, FinTech’s US$12.21 billion in venture investments this year still look like peanuts. But Fintech is poised to grow in coming years radically.

Silicon Valley, New York, London and Hong Kong are topping the charts in global fintech race. These cities are the dark horses which are among the first innovators in the industry. Recently a manifesto, UK Fintech 2020 has been launched by Fintech Innovate Finance with a vision of making UK to be a centre for financial services. Currently £20 billion of GDP of UK economy is being generated by Fintech and 135,000 people are involves in this industry. According to Innovate Finance, the UK is top in Europe for fintech investment, taking 42% of all European fintech investment in 2014. Investment grew 136% in 2014, from US$264m in 2013 to US$623m 2014.

A large population of Asia, Africa, Latin America and Middle East still uses cash and coins for transactions and they have minimal contact with banks and financial services and hence considered as unbanked. This unbanked constitutes about half of the world’s adult population and Fintech start-ups are maximizing their efforts to provide services to the Unbanked population which can be considered as a virgin market. With the significant growth in Fintech sector, digital currencies for unbanked is becoming the focus for Banks and start-ups. The unbanked now can transfer, remit, save, loan and purchase goods and services by mobile money.   2014 have seen radical increase in number of international remittance using mobile money. Mobile money helped in cost reduction and point to be noted is the cost to sending remittance by mobile money is less than half the average of sending it through transfer agents. Without disruptive technologies, the unbanked would have to struggle with remittance and conversion fees charged by transfer agents like Western Union, which can cost up to 8.5 to 10 per cent of funds transferred. If we talk about ASEAN economy, the unbanked is said to have the potential which can contribute US$17 billion to US$52 billion to the economy by 2030. 

Big Banks have tightened their belt to compete with these Fintech start-ups. CoinDesk recently issued State of Bitcoin for second quarter of 2015, which stated that Santander, Barclays, UBS and BNY Mellon are among the global banks which are exploring the potential of blockchain.  These banks are studying the every possible use of blockchain for cost reduction, increasing efficiency and speed and to provide transparency and more security. But still banks are ill prepared to take up the emerging cut throat competition.

There were 192 fintech mergers and acquisitions worth a total of US$18.9 billion in the first half of 2015, according to research from investment bank Berkery Noyes. Six of the top ten largest deals in 1st Half 2015 were in the Payments segment. These six transactions, with a combined value of US$10.46 billion, accounted for 55 percent of aggregate value year-to-date. Total transaction volume in 1st Half 2015 decreased by seven percent over 2nd Half 2014, from 206 to 192. Total transaction value in 1st Half 2015 rose by 17 percent over 2nd Half 2014, from US$16.21 billion to US$18.90 billion. This is a clear indication that Fintech is constantly rising and constantly trying to disrupt traditional finance market.

“In the next three to five years there will be more change in finance and the way you use your money than in the last 20 years, “John Lunn, PayPal’s global director for developer and start-up relations, said at Rise 2015. According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, US$4.7 trillion in revenue for traditional financial services is at risk of being displaced globally by new technology-focused entrants. So this the the high tide for traditional banking and finance industry to pull up the socks and work in smarter way to save their business from disruption.

Can effects and after effects of natural disaster be tamed?

Several million earthquake hits our ground every year and majority of them does not get detected due to small magnitude or occurrence in a remote area. But the big earthquakes which are larger in magnitudes impact our lives to a great extent in terms of life and economic loss. Now the main question is how to reduce the losses to the minimum level or how to avoid the major losses? How the emerging technology can help us in minimizing damages and maximizing safety?

Around 13000 people loose their lives per year due to earthquakes and approximately 5 million people gets severely affected by it.  Recently the stability of Indian subcontinent was disturbed multiple times by a major earthquake and it’s after effect whose epicenter was located deep in Himalayas in Nepal and was measured 7.9 on Richter scale. It was estimated that about as many as 10000 people were dead and around 25 percent to Nepal’s GDP was destroyed. This is a huge loss for a developing nation which has pushed it many year back. Can technology help in reducing these damages?

Scientists are unlikely to be ever able to predict earthquakes with any amount of certainty, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). They can say that an earthquake can hit a particular place in near future but cannot predict exactly when it can occur. However, big data analytics is providing the leap in accuracy of quake predictions, says Forbes, with recent predictions being 90% accurate. Companies using satellite data are increasingly able to forecast major quakes from one to 30 days before they occur in all key seismic prone areas.

In today’s time we are well connected and by using SMS massaging, GPS signalling, stable wifi and constantly in use social media can made a cluster which can be helpful in relief work and even pre calamity data can be helpful in finding out trends and more accurately predicting natural disasters. Even the Crisis mapping technology and evolving of digital maps are extremely useful sources to expand relief programs in the disaster affected regions. Currently USA and Japan are working jointly in developing six different projects on disaster management using Big Data and data analytics.

Google has launched People Finder after Haiti earthquake in 2010 and it was updated around 5300 times in first two days of Nepal Earthquake. Facebook’s safety check also covers people whose GPS data shows that they are in danger zone. Similarly during Sandy storm, Geeks without bounds and Splunk4Good worked together to analyse data from Twitter feeds so as to find out patterns and trends of activities in certain area. The European Commission, together with the Inter-Agency Standing Committee has developed an Index for Risk Management (INFORM), an open-source global risk analysis tool for understanding the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. Using data from 191 countries, INFORM can assess a country or region’s actual risk with high levels of specificity.

It has also been proposed by scientists to study electromagnetic fields which are thought to be changed just before earthquakes. Animals can sense earthquake more effectively and much before then human beings. According to a study published in journal of Zoology that 96% of male toads abandoned their breeding site five days before the earthquake which struck almost 74 KM away. May be in near future we may borrow this disaster detecting ability from animals and we may become more equipped in reducing damages from natural disasters.

Mother's Milk

Mother’s milk is the natural blessing to the infants and fundamental source of nourishment since ancient time which is now becoming commodity and is among fast growing business across the globe. This is so because Researchers believes that the breast milk which is providing nutrition and protecting babies from infections, is upcoming with potential therapeutics for adults as well to treat intestinal and infectious diseases. Biotech firms want to use this therapeutic potential of breast milk by converting it into new types of medicines which can stand against intestinal problems and infections.

Up till recent times, this milk was available to child directly through mother but as nothing remains constant, this milk is available now through milk banks and over the internet through different milk sharing websites as well. The non profit milk banks were providing donor milk to hospitals for years but companies have entered in the picture for making profits, and due to which breast milk is becoming a commodity and donations are continuously dropping.

In India, human milk banking is in its infant stage and its biggest reason is lack of awareness with other reasons like infrastructure, leadership and budget problems. The growth of milk banks in India is very less as compared to neonatal intensive care units. The very first milk bank was “Sneha”, started in Dharavi Mumbai which was opened by Dr. Armeda Fernandez and now the number of milk banks has risen to 14 all over India. Recently a modern public sector milk bank was inaugurated in Kolkata on 7^th August 2013.

At the end of 19^th century, the strategy for humanizing cow’s milk was applied by the scientists by adding certain substance like barley water, lactic acid, lemon juice and sodium bicarbonate. Similarly in 21^st century, biotechnology is being used to create formulas to create breasts milk in labs. Now the breasts milk is commercialized and it is making many people uneasy and they are concerned about the capture of milk by the companies and its less availability to non profit milk banks. Many women are happy to donate their milk to the infants in need, while other believes that they should get compensation like sperms and egg donors. Unlike body organs, tissues and fluids, breasts milk is unregulated as it is considered to be a food, so it is legal to buy and sell everywhere in USA and many parts of the world whereas selling breasts milk is illegal in other part of the world.

Since the breasts milk is become commercialized and is selling and buying over the internet, there is a debate about whether the milk safe for infants or not. Doctors in Germany have warned against obtaining milk through internet as the donors might be taking drugs or medicines or might have any illness or diseases like HIV or Hepatitis. Also a recent study done over safety of human breasts milk over the internet found that 10 percent of sample contained added cow’s milk. Also experts say that sale of breasts milk over the internet can be a serious threat to infant health and urgent regulation is needed. This is because purchasing from internet might be cheaper than buying it from regulated milk banks as seller can cut costs over its process like pasteurization, testing for contamination, collection, storage and shipping etc.

The rapid commercialization of breasts milk gives rise to some questions – Who will be receiving milk in future, the capitalists or the babies in need of mother’s milk? Whether the increasing commercial demand will end the milk donations and milk banks? Whether majority of new mothers will become milk machines in order to earn extra money? Whether this upcoming scenario will turn mother’s milk into one of the most important commercial product and this will give rise to a new industry? And finally most important question is whether it is ethically and morally right or not? All these questions will be answered in near future and we are just watching the blessing turning into commodity.

Antibiotics

A very recent study conducted by researchers of University of Exeter in UK, published in the journal PLoS Biology has shown a ray of hope to win the battle against the drug resistant bacteria which are gaining strength because of over usage of antibiotics. Scientists have tested different sequences of low dose antibiotics against a common bug which resulted in complete elimination of bacteria which is actually a better performance than conventional combination of drugs given at higher doses. These study findings are much similar to another study done around a year back by Technical University of Denmark. The biologists found that when E. Coli gains resistance to one antibiotic, it also becomes more sensitive to others. If this strategy proves on humans, then it could provide the way to use old antibiotics that are currently considered ineffective.

Resistance to antibiotics was declared by World Health Organisation, a major global threat to public health. A study done by scientists of Princeton University “Global Trends in Antibiotic Consumption, 2000-2010” found that worldwide antibiotic use has risen by 36% (from 54 083 964 813 standard units to 73 620 748 816 standard units) over those 10 years and the BRICS countries i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are responsible for 3/4^th of this increased usage. India is topping the charts in usage of antibiotics with an increase of 62% in usage over the past decade. During this decade, India’s antibiotic use went up from 8 billion units in 2000 to 12.9 billion units in 2010. The study also reported that Indian’s consume around 11 antibiotic tablets per year, Chinese takes 7 antibiotics per year but Americans consumes 22 antibiotic pills a year.

A recent study conducted in India found that many infants born with bacterial infections that are resistant to most known antibiotics and more than 58000 infants died last year, which is only a small part of 800,000 infants die annually. Researchers already found “Superbug” which was initially found in India, around the world including in United States, France, Japan and Oman. Indian government has a program to pay women to have babies born in hospitals and this has increased share of hospital born babies to 82%. But the issue is the necessary infrastructure to deal with increasing number of patients is not enough and due to this vulnerability of getting infection is increasing. Statistics shows that estimated two million people encountered with resistant bacteria every year in United States and 23,000 die as a result and similarly about 25,000 people dies across Europe because of similar drug resistant infection. A document published by National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies in U.K cited that “If a widespread outbreak were to occur, we could expect around 200,000 people to be affected by a bacterial blood infection that could not be treated effectively with existing drugs, and around 80,000 of these people might die."

India spends around 1% of its GDP on public health as compared to 3% of China and 8.3% in the United States. But this time Indian government has cut down around 20% in its 2014-15 healthcare budget due to fiscal strain, which can risk the disease control initiative in India whose public spending in healthcare is among the lowest in the world. PM Modi has planned an ambitious universal healthcare programme which aims to provide all citizens with free drugs and diagnostic treatments as well as insurance benefits. It is estimated that the cost of programme will be approximately 1.6 trillion rupees ($25 Billion). The health ministry is expecting a rise in budget for the coming year in order to pay this extra cost.

In order to have a better control and to reduce the spread of resistant bacteria, the misuse and overuse of antibiotics must be stopped. A systematic procedure in drug prescription is immediately required and also is expected to be strictly followed. India being the home of 12 Billion poorest people of the world, there is an urgent need of proper sanitation, the absence of which is giving rise bacterial born diseases. It cannot be expected that the government will only figure out everything about this, but the active participation of communities are also required in order to fight this contingency.

Homeopathy in Questions

A recent report by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) raised a big question mark on a 250 year old medicine system. A review of 225 studies on homeopathy done by Australian scientists concluded that this medical treatment is ineffective and there is no proof of its effectiveness.  However NHMRC says that there are no reliable estimates regarding use of homeopathy in Australia but 2009 WHO review found that Australians spends an estimated $9.59 million on industry annually.

According to WHO, homeopathy is the second largest system of medicine in the world. WHO says that annual sales of homeopathic drugs accounts to Rs 8,400 crore globally (Previous data), and it is expected to touch Rs 52,000 crore by 2017. Homeopathy is practiced in 66 countries and the treatment is individualized.

Homeopathic medicine system is very popular in India and its market size is rising despite of the claims of its ineffectiveness by western countries. India’s registered homeopathic medical practitioners raised two folds from 1.05 lakh in 1980 to 2.46 lakh in 2010 and homeopathic hospitals raised four folds from 1,686 in 1980 to about 7,000 in 2010. The study conducted by ASSOCHAM said that Indian homeopathic market size was about Rs 2,785 crore in 2010 and it is expected to grow 30% annually.

India has setup a ministry to promote yoga and traditional medicine as PM Narendra Modi is on mission to raise awareness and appeal of home grown health treatment. Homeopathic medicine is among the popular traditional medicines as compared to ayurvedic and unani and siddha. The Indian government allocated 10.69 Billion Rupees ($174 Million) for the development and promotion of traditional medicine in 2014-15 financial year.  On one side studies are neglecting homeopathic medicine and on other side government is supporting traditional treatments. Our people who are using this treatment have their faith attached with this medicine despite of studies outcome.

Some historical data supports homeopathic medicine and shows that it is more effective than conventional treatment in treating serious diseases. The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed over 22 million people worldwide and more than 500,000 in the United States. 70% of those treated with conventional medicine survived, while the survival rate for those treated homeopathically was more than 98%. Similarly During the cholera epidemic of 1849 in Cincinnati, local newspapers reported survival rates of 40-52% in the general population, with a 97% survival rate for those treated with homeopathy. There are some more data points which inclined towards effectiveness of homeopathic medicine, but the data is quantitative and not qualitative. According to D.S Rawat, the Secretary General of ASSOCHAM, people turns to allopathy in emergency situations however in chronic illness people prefers homeopathy which is considered to be slow but offers sure treatment.

The outcome of report against a medical treatment can affect billions of lives i.e. the people who are taking treatment and the homeopathic practitioners as well.  People who are directly and indirectly related to homeopathy are not ready to accept this outcome of this report. The important question which is still popping up in people’s mind is about the validity of report and its outcome and if this report is correct then what about the people who claim to become better by using this medical treatment. More clarity is required for affecting the beliefs of people who are related to this treatment. No homeopathic doctor or the people who are taking treatment are going to be effected by this report but it is enough to create a seed of doubt among people. Now it will be interesting to see the effect of this report and how the homeopathic world denies this outcome. But my question is if it is ineffective then how come this practice is continuing since more than 250 years? Well the coming time may clear out the clouds of doubts.

Climate change and Food Security

Food has always been proved to be a turning point in survival of any civilization. Food security is one of the major concerns which can be felt globally. The issues relating to food security are rising day by day due to increase in population, reduction in agricultural land and climate change. Major concern is Global warming and climate change, which are having immediate effects of agriculture and lifestyle.

We live in a world where an estimated 805 million people sleeps hungry each night. We are producing more than enough food to feed global population, but the problem is more than one third of food produced on our planet does not find a table. This is because either food gets spoiled in transit or is wasted by consumers in wealthier countries who tend to buy more than actually needed. In short we can say that nearly 1.3 billion tons of food gets wasted worth nearly $1 Trillion at retail price. The energy used in production of food till reaching the consumer generates more than 3.3 Billion metric ton of carbon dioxide. If we consider food waste to be a country, it would be the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases after USA and China.

A recent study says that global worming could reduce world’s food production by 18% by 2050, but the investments in infrastructure and irrigation, and moving food outputs to different regions might reduce the loss. Global system of irrigation must be expanded by more than 25% to cover up changing rainfall patterns. If climate change is managed properly, then food production can be increased by 3% till 2050 as the higher concentration of carbon dioxide has fertilizing effects on plants.

It is to be noted that meat production is a major contributor to climate change. It is estimated that livestock production accounts for 70% of land use and occupies 30% of world’s land surface. FAO has estimated that livestock production is contributing around 18% of greenhouse gases.  If we talk about chemical farming, it uses considerably more energy per unit of production as compared to organic farming. The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers in farming produces nitrogen oxide which is approximately 300 times more powerful then carbon dioxide in absorbing atmospheric heat.

Recently a study done by Australian scientists concludes that swamps and wetlands could be 50 times more effective then rain forests in storing carbon. Researchers found that swamps holds up to one third of carbon found in terrestrial soils, and occupies only 4% of planets land surface. Since 1990, around 50% of wetlands have been destroyed for urban development and farming, which is also an alarming condition.

Genetic resources have to play a critical role in feeding the world. Since climate change is advancing faster than expected, it is required to preserve and utilize the biological diversity that underpins the world’s food production. Climate change and food production are interlinked and taking care about climate, food production practices and food management can only help in future food security, otherwise our coming generations would face difficulties in survival.

IPR – A Tug of War

We live in a country with current estimated population of about 1.27 Billion and second most populous country after China. The statistics shows that India has approximately 17.31% of total world’s population. With the growth rate of about 1.58%, our country India is expected to have more than 1.53 Billion of population by 2030 and will become world’s most populous country. Currently India has death rate of 6.4 deaths/1000 people and infant mortality rate of 30.15 deaths/1000 live births. Some of the reasons of India’s growing population are poverty, illiteracy, high fertility rate, decline in death rates and immigrations from neighboring countries.

India being a vastly populous country, approximately 29.5% of its population lives below poverty line (according to Rangarajan Committee). Latest Millennium development report by UN says that approximately one third of world’s 1.2 Billion poorest people lives in India. No doubt India one of the fastest growing country but it is wealth distribution gap is widening day by day and because of which a niche rich class is enjoying every privilege but the vast poor class is not able to access their daily needs and forget about costly education and medical expenses.    

Recently we have seen 66^th Indian Republic Day parade with Barak Obama as a chief guest. It is for the first time that US state head has visited India twice and given this honor by India. This visit by Obama can be seen in terms of strengthening strategic partnership among first democracy (USA) and the largest democracy (India). Obama’s comments on IPR policies in medical sector during India-US CEO forum was harshly criticized by international health activists. There are concerns that US is pressuring India to take care about drug manufacturing MNC’s seeking patent protection in India.

In April 2014, USTR Special 301 report on intellectual property protection has retained India on priority watch list in terms of infringement of US patent laws. The report further says that about 10-40 percent of drugs sold in Indian markets can impose a serious threat to health and safety of patients. The Indian pharmaceutical industry reacted angrily to this allegation. MSF an international medical humanitarian organization also reacted and criticized this report for speaking against Indian allegation.             

The intense attack on Indian IPR started in 2012 when patent controller in India allowed the production of an expensive cancer drug which reduced its price by 97 percent. The American pharmaceutical industry is not happy because India does not allow patens on same drug with minor modifications which curbs ever greening of monopoly.  It is to be noted that Indian IPR policies are not favored by USA and EU but this has been a live saver for Indians and other developing countries which are in need of urgent modern medical treatment. Even health groups in US like OXFAM America, GAP, TAG, AVAC and others have requested Mr. Obama to support India in providing high quality and low cost generic medicines which are essentials of health care around the world.

India is a leading manufacturer and exporter of low cost generic drugs. In 2013-14, Indian pharmaceutical industry registered exports worth $14.84 Billion. USA itself is the major importer of these medicines.   Even if we talk about historical President George W. Bush’s PEPFAR AIDS relief program, about 98 percent of drugs was purchased were generic from India. Before Indian companies manufactured generic versions at $1 per day, AIDS medication was costing around $10000 per person per year.

Low cost generic medicines manufactured by India are taking care of public health in developing countries, especially in third world countries. This also contributes to Indian economy and is expected to grow at CAGR of 14 percent and expected to reach a turnover of $47.06 Billion by 2018. Now it will be interesting to look at Indian government concerns regarding low cost generic medical treatments for all or the shift of concern towards profit oriented MNC’s. We can only expect Indian government to take care of its huge population and other countries who cannot afford expensive medical care and to take humanitarian approach instead of taking capitalistic approach. This humanitarian approach will not only save billions of lives but also will help in contributing Indian economy.

“We the People of India”

I still remember the words of Modi “People from around the world have settled in America and People from India have settled across the world”. Then I started thinking about importance of Indian talent across the globe. Since decades Indians are moving out towards other countries in search of better opportunities and are grabbing those opportunities. Today we can find Indians at very reputational positions across the globe.

According to a report of World Bank, Over 14 Million people born in India are living abroad, which is estimated to be the largest emigrant stock of the world. India is topping the global remittance chart with around $71 Billion in 2014, which is 1.5% more than previous year’s $70 Billion.  China is on second position in remittance chart with $64 Billion and the two Asian giants received around 23% of $584 Billion across the globe in 2014. According to Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs (MOIA), Inwards remittance forms around 22-23% of country’s foreign exchange and also contributes to around 3-4% of country’s GDP.

Trend that differentiates the capital inflow from foreign labor to India is that unlike many other countries, India is in very good position of high skills labor export. Expertise in technology space accounts for large part of remittance.  

According to a report of Oxford Economics, Of the major emerging markets, the fastest annual talent pool growth will be in India (7.3%), followed by Brazil (5.6%), Indonesia (4.9%), Turkey (4.7%) and China (4.6%). Already half of world’s college graduates (54%) come from top emerging markets as compared to 46% from industrialized world.  Over the next decade, the percentage of college graduates will rise to 60% in the emerging markets which will be approximately 217million workers as opposed to 143 million in the developed world.

The Mc Kinsey Global Institute (MGI) projects that by 2018, the US alone will face a 50-60% gap between supply and demand of analytical talent. The gap is estimated at 140,000 to 190,000 analytics specialists and 1.5 million more data-literate managers. India has over 1500 technical colleges producing over 500,000 graduates each year is an education superpower. While majority of graduates needs further training for become employable as per international standards, but Indian students knows that not only education but skills will help them in attracting good jobs and packages. By 2025, 25% of world’s workers will be Indians.

India is projected to be at the top positions among the countries in terms of surplus of educated talent. Indian pool of college educated talent is expected to rise more than 45 million in 10 years. It will exceed the demand in Indian economy. This will result in compression of wage premium for talent and this will force the best talent to search for better opportunities outside India.

India has the resource, expertise and experience to meet the upcoming demands, but have to develop tie ups and partnership with prominent universities and corporate world to pace up with upcoming market challenges and working cultures. With proper training and guidance, Indian talent will roar high in the future market.

Wake up call

The Modi’s show at Madison Square was a grand hit. Not only the 18000 people present there but whole world felt his strong presence. The concept of “Make in India” and “3D” i.e. Democracy, Demand and Demographic Dividend got the maximum attention by corporate world. India is the largest democracy of the world and is having second largest population after China, so “demand” is obvious. But the Demographic Dividend is still under question.

According to a report of UN, India is currently having world’s largest youth population  i.e. 365 million people in the age group of 10-24 year olds, which is 28% of Indian Population and also having 50% of population in working age group i.e. 15-59 year olds. It is expected that by 2020, more than 65% of population would come under bracket of working age group. Now the question arises whether this young working population is employable? And whether this young population is equipped enough with skills and knowledge so that they can be preferred by corporate world?

According to Global Talent Index (GTI) report 2015, employment opportunities is raising in India but it is hindering by continuous poor standard of education, due to which overall performance has not seen any change and India is on 35^th Rank in GTI 2015 which was similar in GTI 2011. Skill report 2015 by CII says that only 37.22% of fresh Indian Talent is employable as compared to 33% last year. The campaign “Make in India” is initiated so as to convert India into manufacturing hub and is expected to create jobs for around 10 million peoples. But whether the quality of our Indian scholar production factory is prepared to match the expectation of changing market scenario?

India has around 700 Universities and 48000 plus colleges and institutes scattered across the country and still required more institutes to set up so as to serve its millions. Still the biggest challenge is to improve and maintain the quality of current institutes. According to NAAC, 62% of universities and 90% of colleges count as average or below average. But this information is based on 20% of institutions which have NAAC accreditation.

Institutes are not mere building and campus, but its most important ingredients are faculty and students. Quality improvement can be done by the support of well qualified faculties. Government and Universities has reported the faculty shortage, even Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) is also facing faculty shortage problems. Due to lack of government aided supports and lack of good pay packages, Indian faculty are moving to Western Universities. “Brain Drain” can be considered one of the main reasons for quality shortage.

Government has to plan education expenditure properly and it is required to provide research and education environment. Problems related to institutions and basic academic structure has to be addressed as soon as possible. This is a Wakeup Call which has to be addressed by our system; otherwise this demographic dividend can turn into a big disaster.

(Please do comment, I would like to know your opinion, Thank you).